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For the past 22 years, Strand Consult has provided previews and post-views of the Mobile World Congress (MWC). MWC began 38 years ago in Cannes as a small conference, where attendees would gather at the Hotel Majestic’s bar after each day’s events. By 2019, it attracted a record 107,000 participants and 2,400 exhibitors. The 2020 pandemic cancelled the event, and 2021 was held as a hybrid, online/in-person format with 30,000 participants. In 2022, attendance rose to 61,000, followed by 88,500 in 2023. In 2024, MWC finally returned to pre-pandemic numbers with 101,000 attendees and 2,700 exhibitors, sponsors, and partners. GSMA aims to replicate this success this year.
RELATED: 2025 Predictions and 2024 Global Mobile Telecom Industry Review from Strand Consult
2025 marks an anniversary in the mobile industry and reflects a key challenge for the industry: return on investment. Twenty-five years ago, European countries held a series of 3G auctions, which saw mobile operators pay a staggering €110 billion across Europe. Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain each auctioned off roughly 140 MHz each. Germany raised a remarkable €50.8 billion, while the UK earned £22.5 billion. Mobile operators initially believed they could sell 1 MB of data for €1-2, but they were lucky to receive a fraction of a cent.
Auctions were a financial disaster for mobile operators
To put this in perspective, the €110 billion spent in 2000 is equivalent to around $190 billion today. These auctions sparked a recession in the mobile industry and triggered a consolidation of infrastructure providers, shrinking 12 top-tier firms to 5.
While the auctions were a financial disaster for mobile operators, they laid down a network footprint of mobile broadband to enable the rise of over-the-top (OTT) providers like Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. Today, these OTTs have eclipsed mobile operators and have become the primary focus of MWC.
MWC Barcelona is like a menu at a Chinese restaurant or the Cheesecake Factory: long, impressive, and offering something for everyone. Its keynotes, panels, and exhibitions present the big picture, the hype, and the myriad of smaller elements that make up the vast mobile universe.
Framework for MWC and the State of the Mobile Telecom Industry
The thematic focus is directed at the largest OTTs and their provision of AI, cloud, and computer vision. The largest OTTs profit handsomely from access to mobile networks. However, their presence does not translate into increased revenue or earnings for mobile telecom operators. Simply put, while the average revenue per user (ARPU) for the largest OTTs continues to rise, the ARPU for mobile operators remains flat or declines. In many markets, OTTs now earn a higher ARPU than the very networks they rely on.
MWC actively promotes the services that OTTs create, deliver, and sell over mobile telecom networks. Mobile operators face heavy regulation. They must buy licenses, pay taxes, and employ thousands. OTTs, however, pay little to no taxes or fees, and in most cases, pay nothing to access mobile networks. The Caribbean with its two dozen nations offers a microcosm of this issue, and Strand Consult’s report Gigabit Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks documents the financial challenge.
OTTs have actively blocked development of two-sided markets for mobile traffic
A handful of the largest OTTs generate most of the world’s traffic. As much as 25% of OTT traffic is advertising, and this share is growing. End users must pay the data cost of advertising just the same as they do for the actual content they request. This wasn’t an issue in year 2000, but as mobile traffic has surged, broadband business models have failed to keep pace.
OTTs have actively blocked the development of two-sided markets for mobile traffic, aiming to avoid competition in the advertising space. At the same time, they continue increasing the traffic they pump into mobile networks without compensating operators for the rising infrastructure costs—an economic classic: the “free ride.”
Failing to guide the industry toward a sustainable financial model, GSMA instead shifts its focus to everything mobile networks enable. Conference organizers know that showcasing what seems “cool” fuels the industry’s ongoing hype cycle—ultimately designed to sell tickets and exhibition space. The media buzz you see is carefully packaged into a vast program featuring 1,000 speakers across numerous panels and sessions.
The Struggle to Consolidate
For the 10th and final time, GSMA Director General Mats Granryd (2023 salary $2,082,863), will open the conference. Under his leadership, global mobile network provider revenue and profitability has got under huge pressure. Meanwhile, the number of mobile users has nearly doubled, from 4.15 billion to 7.49 billion. While Granryd might boast that the industry has become more efficient, serving twice as many customers with better technology and les revenue, the outcome has been disastrous for mobile network shareholders. Granryd tenure has overseen severe budget-cutting measures, starting with the mobile industry’s own profits.
If GSMA could do one thing for the mobile industry, it would be to advocate effectively for consolidation. It has struggled on this front, and consolidation efforts in Europe have largely stalled over the past decade. At MWC, mobile industry CEOs will once again voice concerns about unreasonable political and regulatory barriers. With industry revenues shrinking, firms should at least have the option to merge to reduce costs—but don’t hold your breath for change.
EU’s egregious regulation, and risk aversion
Indeed there is a push by many operators to highlight former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s report The future of European competitiveness describing EU failure to stimulate innovation and growth, its egregious regulation, and risk aversion. There is also the new European Commission (EC) Compass to regain competitiveness and secure sustainable prosperity, the predictable refrain for each 5 year commission to cut red tape and simplify the regulatory environment. The EC not only documents the regulatory problems but also proposes solutions, yet these recommendations often go unimplemented, leaving the situation unchanged. The Draghi report and the EC Compass are just old wine in new bottles.
While the EU has achieved much for Europe, notably the 5G toolbox for security, Brussels’ bureaucratic machine stifles entrepreneurship and penalizes risk-takers. Europe is a great place for a holiday, a football match, or a designer handbag, but when it comes to serious telecom investment, investors look elsewhere.
EU’s Energy and Telecom mix
As energy accounts for a growing cost-center for mobile operators, the EU’s aspirational green energy fever dream warrants mention. EU Commissioner for Energy and Housing, Dan Jørgensen announced an Action Plan for Affordable Energy which attempts to decouple the price of energy from the price of electricity, a suspension of the laws of economics. It aspires to reduce energy taxes which EU nations will use ostensibly to raise money for defense. Jørgensen, Denmark’s Minister of Climate, Energy, and Telecom from 2019 to 2022, fervently promoted the climate agenda, garnering impressive media coverage.
However, none of the projects he peddled, including his ambitious Energy Islands initiative aimed at powering 5 million households with offshore wind power, have come to fruition. Today, the Danish clean energy industry is in recession and the two Energy Islands have turned into a political Atlantis. Jørgensen treated Denmark’s telecom like an unwanted stepchild, having just one meeting with the trade association and attending no industry events in his three years. The telecom and energy markets share similarities – both have high fixed costs and limited customer bases. If mobile operators believe Jørgensen will lower energy prices, he can also sell them a bridge to Brussels.
Much like the GSMA, Connect Europe (ETNO) jumps on the Commission’s growth through greening bandwagon, echoing EC talking points in its press releases. These feel-good, look-good statements serve as distractions from the serious challenges the EU continues to ignore as the economy contracts.
Investment, Geopolitics and the Mobile Industry
Ukraine remains. For MWC 2022, Strand Consult wrote how Russia was the elephant in the room. European operators denounced the invasion; while the Chinese remained silent. The EU slapped 16 packages of sanctions on Russia to little effect. Russia just turned to China for help. In three years, the EU spent more money on Russian energy than financial aid to Ukraine. However Denmark, despite its small size, outperformed larger nations, spending 25% more on direct military aid to Ukraine than France, Spain and Italy combined.
Having founded Strand Consult 28 years ago, my views on telecom policy are shaped by my experience as a Dane and a proud European. Our continent can and must do better. Sadly the policy issues telecom leaders will discuss in Barcelona this year are the same ones they’ve debated for 15 years, all while overlooking the industry’s own strategic missteps.
In football, underperforming players and coaches are fired; in European telecoms, accountability is far less common. The GSMA faces a dilemma if MWC focused rightly on creating shareholder value, it would be a much smaller event, with fewer flashy presentations, more pragmatic discussions, and far fewer of today’s speakers making the cut.
Some of the hard truths may surface at the GSMA Ministerial Programme, an exclusive gathering for regulators and select invitees. This is GSMA’s private forum where those responsible for failed regulations can discuss their decisions among themselves. Unfortunately, this means the European telecommunications industry’s massive challenges are debated behind closed doors, shielded from the scrutiny they deserve.
Investment backlog in European telecommunications has double
According to the EU’s own figures, the investment backlog in European telecommunications has doubled from €100 billion to €200 billion in just a few years. This is in a market where telecom companies struggle to generate a return on invested capital. As one leader recently put it, “A €100 billion or €200 billion shortfall sounds frightening. The reason is simple – if a sector’s return on capital employed is below the cost of capital, every euro spent destroys value. That’s why it’s so alarming.”
For those seeking more substantive insight into the industry’s challenges, I highly recommend the Telecoms.com podcast by Scott Bicheno and Iain Morris. One episode features Digicel founder and mobile network entrepreneur Denis O’Brien. It’s one of the best discussions on telecom I’ve heard, and O’Brien’s assessment of the industry is spot on.
There’s no doubt that MWC Barcelona is a place to meet fascinating people and hear big ideas. But if you’re looking for real solutions to the massive challenges the European telecom sector has faced for decades, you’re unlikely to find them there.
12 keynotes and other sessions worth mentioning
Here are some of the exciting sessions I plan to attend. Keynote 1 on Monday Gateway to a New Future features Mats Granryd and his GSMA successor, Vivek Badrinath, along with Vicki Brady from Telstra, Sunil Bharti Mittal from Bharti Airtel, Telefónica’s new Chairman & CEO Marc Murtra, Telenor’s new CEO Benedicte Schilbred Fasmer, and He Biao, President & CEO of China Mobile discussing how the mobile industry serves 6 billion people, its contributions to society, the value created through digitalization, and future potential.
They will also likely address the significant economic and, in some regions, regulatory pressures the industry faces, challenges we’ve heard about countless times before. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that narrative, but the issue is that these leaders have been repeating the same points for 15 years, without real change in some regions, while others are progressing slowly but positively.
They will likely address geopolitical challenges like the war in Ukraine. However, I don’t expect them to address the eight risks for the 5G supply chain posed by suppliers under the influence of adversarial countries like China. The world is changing rapidly, and China is not the same country it was a decade ago. Today, China considers Russia, Iran, and North Korea as friends- nations actively working to undermine free-world democracies. Chinese mobile network suppliers have delivered 4G networks to Crimea after Russia’s invasion in 2014.
China and global telecom industry
Today, thousands of North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine, a war being waged on European soil with tacit approval from the Chinese government. Meanwhile, recent reports highlight how Chinese hackers are targeting critical telecom and energy infrastructures as well as the online accounts of government agencies and public officials.
Additionally, a Chinese vessel has been implicated in sabotage of a subsea cable near Taiwan, just one example of China’s increasingly sophisticated electronic warfare efforts. Strand Consult foresaw this development in 2019 in its research note, Telecoms operators’ next big challenge is the 100,000 Chinese hackers attacking their corporate customers every day. The risks posed by China’s cyber activities are no longer hypothetical; they are a growing reality shaping global security and technological resilience.
In Keynote 2 Beyond Connectivity: The Telco to Techco Transformation features Ralph Mupita, the CEO of MTN which operates in 20 markets in Africa and has 287 million customers. Some of these markets are challenging and their political winds can change quickly, but MTN delivers reasonable results. Other speakers include Hatem Dowidar, Group CEO of e&, and KDDI President & CEO Makoto Takahashi.
Fair share and Broadband Cost Recovery
Don’t miss Keynote 3 Balancing Innovation and Regulation: Global Perspectives on Telecom Policy with Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr (US telecom regulator) Brendan Carr, Indian telecom minister Jyotiraditya M Scindia, and European Commission Executive Vice-President for Tech Sovereignty, Security and Democracy Henna Virkkunen. The U.S. and India pursued significant market consolidation, driven massive 5G investments, and restricted the use of infrastructure from untrusted vendors.
The U.S. and India serve as examples of how the right telecommunications policies can drive progress, benefiting consumers, society, and telecom companies alike. Just a few years ago, India was considered one of the worst telecom markets in the world. However, through strategic policy changes and market consolidation, the country has managed to turn things around, fostering a healthier and more competitive telecom sector.
Meanwhile, Europe, instead of being a global leader in telecommunications, has positioned itself as the world’s regulator. Its policies have driven away investors and innovators, leaving its people behind when it comes to cutting-edge networks.
OTTs and mobile operators: Enabling infrastructure investment
One important discussion notably absent from the public program is broadband network cost recovery the market-based negotiations between OTTs and mobile operators that are crucial for enabling infrastructure investment. GSMA’s struggle to articulate the value proposition and business model reflects broader shortfall to deliver meaningful policy for the industry. It seems the GSMA is more focused on placating Big Tech members.
GSMA’s reluctance to address this challenge publicly means the broader mobile industry misses the chance to fully understand these concepts, leading to misinterpretations by the press and policymakers. GSMA should take a principled stance, recognizing that just as OTT players create value through two-sided market business models, mobile operators should have the same opportunity to do so.
Checkout the fair share panel on Monday, March 3rd, at 14:15 in Johnson Hall, Stage 6, titled Is It Time for Big Tech to Pay Their Fair Share? The Case for Backing Telecom Networks. It features Denis O’Brien (Digicel), Lauren Ballerin Cereza (MP European Parliament, Spain), Shahid Ahmed (NTT), and Bocar Ba (Moderator).
Address the imbalance between telecoms and Big Tech
Key points of discussion will include the Draghi report, which observes the need to address the imbalance between telecoms and Big Tech, encouraging commercial agreements with final arbitration. Panelists will likely explore successful policies like South Korea’s, where market-based negotiations between broadband and content providers of all sizes have happened for almost a decade, and Australia, where Google and Meta have made over 80 deals with publishers.
The US had had non-public deals for some two decades, and ecosystems have flourished. The EU proposal on fair share, which applies to the B2B side of the market, will also be examined, along with the free ride practices of leading platforms like Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, TikTok, and Netflix, which collectively account for most European internet traffic. Questions will address the potential for deregulation, digital colonialism, and the role of GSMA in improving policies to foster investment in networks. Panelists could discuss how fair share arrangements could bridge the gap and help drive further global connectivity and network investment.
Similarly, the New Digital Economy: Connecting the Dots session at the GSMA Ministerial Programme, scheduled for Tuesday, March 4, 2025 at 11:45 to 13:00 CET features important speakers behind closed doors: Renate Nikolay, Deputy Director-General, DG CONNECT, European Commission; Mari-Noëlle Jégo-Laveissière, Executive Vice President, CEO, Orange Europe; Vivek Sood, Group Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Axiata Group Berhad; Ronnie Vasishta, Senior Vice President, Telecom, NVIDIA; Wilson L. White, Vice President, Government Affairs & Public Policy, Google; Wolfgang Kopf, Senior Vice President, Group Public and Regulatory Affairs, Deutsche Telekom AG; and Óscar López Águeda, Minister for Digital and Civil Service Transformation, Spain,
Strand Consult’s Global Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery has examined these issues in a series of reports with original research. Strand Consult has explored these issues through a series of reports with original research. Strand Consult has analyzed detailed broadband cost recovery policies in numerous countries and regions, including the USA, South Korea, the Caribbean, Brazil, Africa, the United Kingdom, and other nations, and offers workshops on the policy.
Satellite and the Mobile Industry
In the Tuesday presentation Looking Skyward: NTNs and the Next Era of Global Connectivity Eutelsat’s Eva Berneke, SpaceX’s David Goldman, Skylo’s Parth Trivedi and Intelsat’s Carmel Ortiz will explore how non-terrestrial networks (NTNs). To learn more about this topic get Strand Consult’s new free report Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete? Few know that for the past three years, Eva Berneke through Eutelsat Group has facilitated the distribution of Russian state-controlled media to their Russian customers, NTV Plus and Trikolor, reaching approximately 15 million households in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories.
Despite European Union sanctions imposed in December 2022 against certain Russian media companies, Eutelsat Group has yet to take action to restrict these channels. As a result, the French satellite operator continues to transmit the Russian Armed Forces’ Zvezda channel and the Russian Orthodox Church’s SPAS channel to audiences in Russia and annexed regions of Ukraine.
Companies doing business in Russia face a critical decision
Companies doing business in Russia face a critical decision. French firms like Michelin, Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Citroën, and others have withdrawn, following a moral compass that points to the exit, as Putin’s endgame is detrimental to both Ukraine and the global economy. However, Eutelsat has made a different choice. Not only has it decided to remain in Russia, but it is also supporting Putin’s disinformation campaign, keeping Russians uninformed about what is happening in Ukraine. For further details and documentation on this matter, check out the Denis Diderot Committee.
A session on the Open Gateway explores tapping into a $300 billion market involving telecoms, big tech, and cloud providers, focusing on security, innovation, and policy concerns. TM Forum’s Open APIs have now been downloaded over 1 million times by 53,500 developers from 3,000 organizations. In addition, there are numerous other API providers, including those integrated into smartphone operating systems like Android and iOS. APIs are increasingly widespread. Speakers should shed light on how much of that $300 billion telecom operators around the world can actually capture. Presently operators are not profiting from most APIs embedded in smartphone operating systems like Android and iOS.
Trump, AI, and Deregulation
The “AI Under a Trump Government” session is likely to be well-attended. However it’s unclear whether GSMA reached out to the Administration to get key persons to speak like White House AI czar David Sacks and Office of Science & Technology Policy chief nominee Michael Kratsios, both recognized AI leaders. Trump has made notably AI policy to date, marking an about-face from prior administration’s mother-may-I approach. Trump has rebooting the 2019 AI Executive Order and strategy Artificial Intelligence for the American People, which Vice President JD Vance reiterated in his recent speech in Paris. It consists of US-centered leadership for AI; research & development at US universities and corporations; and jobs for the American people.
The Administration prioritizes AI for military and defense applications to enhance capabilities with autonomous systems and data analysis. Importantly the US wants to keep the edge on China and will address other nations and policies which would hobble US leadership, like Europe’s AI Act, and even legislation from some US states.
President Trump is just 5 weeks into his second term. There are 203 weeks left to go. Strand Consult studies Trump policy and offers a workshop to help its customers navigate the new era in which deregulation, investment, and enterprise are touchstones. The Trump administration’s approach is to (what they call) acknowledge that outdated, misguided, and incorrect regulations harm consumers and taxpayers. Trump argues that it is the people who bear the consequences of poor regulatory decisions, not the bureaucrats who create them.
Trump believes bad regulation stifles enterprise, discourages investment
Trump sees his role is to restore freedom to those affected by higher costs and burdensome rules imposed by unelected officials. Additionally, he believes bad regulation stifles enterprise and discourages investment. Trump’s stance on regulation reflects a traditional American view that emphasizes free-market principles, innovation, experimentation, limited government, and the importance of property rights and the judiciary. Contact Strand Consult to learn more and schedule a workshop.
Trump has stated that he will address Europe’s regulation of Big Tech as a trade barrier. Ironically, EU regulation has benefited Big Tech by raising entry barriers for European competitors, and indeed US companies helped shape EU policies to their benefit. However EU regulation has made EU capital markets less attractive, shifting investment to the US and other regions. In any event, the EU’s Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act grant policymakers powers to achieve ordoliberal outcomes, which are likely not attainable through standard antitrust methods.
Europe’s internet sector has shrunk and overtaken by Africa
Importantly for mobile operators, the US FCC’s net neutrality rules are essentially dead, while the EU has clung to this ill-advised policy, which was heavily influenced by Big Tech. One might defend the policy if the EU had anything to show for it like greater EU investment or innovation. But the policy has delivered exactly the opposite of what was promised. Since rules were imposed in 2015, Europe’s internet sector has shrunk and has even been overtaken by Africa.
There used to be a dozen EU internet champions, but only Spotify has grown to global proportions. It accounts for more than half of the market value of European internet companies, which all told, are but 2 percent of the total global value. Spotify would never have emerged if net neutrality had been the law in 2006. The mobile industry partnerships that helped Spotify grow in its early days are now illegal in Europe.
Strand Consult is a leading authority in the field of net neutrality regulation, having published extensive empirical Net Neutrality Research on more than 50 countries. Strand Consult measures the impact of over-regulation in Europe and demonstrates how consumers and small companies while reinforcing the dominance of larger players. It is crucial that such considerations be included in the broader policy debate on AI, and its deregulation is important to level the playing field for upstarts. Contact Strand Consult about its workshops on its value proposition for next-gen policy for mobile telecommunications.
Looking for answers to tough questions: Security, OpenRAN, Payments
MWC presents a wide array of interesting topics and speakers, akin to a Chinese menu with many choices. However, there are downsides. First, the Ministerial Program has opted not to stream, preventing wider access to the valuable discussions taking place during those sessions. Additionally, for many of the major talks, including keynote addresses, there is no opportunity to ask critical questions or engage with the speakers directly.
A critical omission at MWC 2025 is the absence of discussions surrounding the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly how countries like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are increasingly working together. There is also no analysis of how China views critical infrastructure or its deliberate efforts to systematically remove Western suppliers from its infrastructure, down to the PCs used in the country. See more on this topic.
The new geopolitical reality has a profound impact on many working in the tech and telecom sectors, yet this is largely overlooked at MWC. Meanwhile, the EU has made significant strides to increase transparency and offer officials and policymakers the insights they need, including the publication of a report that dismantles myths about China’s technology suppliers. Read the report here. Additionally, much work has gone into the 5G toolbox, which several EU countries are actively implementing. See more information here.
GSMA: Financial interests may outweigh ethical considerations
Given that GSMA receives funding from Huawei, which has eight speakers at MWC, and other Chinese players, it appears that financial interests may outweigh ethical considerations. It is also critical to recognize that Chinese actors are actively targeting those who criticize China and its regime. See Strand Consult’s note “Is there a legal risk to criticizing Chinese companies?”.
Strand Consult comes to MWC with questions and seeks answers. Once again, this year’s Mobile World Congress will highlight the digital services shaping our increasingly connected world. However, it’s been a long time since a new telecommunications service has significantly boosted revenue and earnings for telecom companies or expanded their role in the digital landscape.
Looking back at 22 years of covering MWC here, I could list many technologies that were expected to drive growth 3G, 4G, 5G, and now 6G. Yet, the promised revenue surge has yet to materialize.
Barcelona and hope for a sky free of clouds
By the end of MWC, you’ll likely be exhausted by AI discussions – ironically, even as AI demands more of our intelligence to navigate. After a week in Barcelona, you might look up and hope for a sky free of clouds. But there’s no doubt AI is a game-changer, and cloud computing will be crucial for processing and storing the massive data generated by humans and machines.
Cloud service business models remain straightforward: pay based on usage and service type. Indeed, this is the way forward on fair share and cost recovery. AI, however, is evolving toward a freemium model, much like Spotify or Netflix – some features are free, others require payment, and premium options come with a subscription.
OpenRAN will also be a talking point. Strand Consult correctly predicted that OpenRAN’s vision of combining equipment from multiple smaller manufacturers is not a viable alternative to traditional RAN solutions. We detailed these challenges in The Moment of Truth: Is OpenRAN an Alternative for Emerging Markets?, explaining why operators largely avoid multivendor OpenRAN setups.
Mobile payments and the role of telecom companies
Expect more discussion on mobile payments, though the role of telecom companies in that space aside from premium SMS, a 25-year-old model remains minimal. A truly disruptive payment solution is Brazil’s Pix, launched by the central bank in 2020. In 2023, Pix processed nearly 42 billion transactions, a 75% increase from the previous year, surpassing credit cards, debit cards, and other payment methods, which collectively handled 39.4 billion transactions.
Unlike traditional mobile payment apps, Pix operates as a transaction infrastructure that banks, merchants, and others can build upon via APIs. For deeper insights, see this report from Brazil’s central bank. Pix has significantly impacted Visa and MasterCard in Brazil, reducing financial transaction costs and inspiring adoption in other countries.
Finally, as always, MWC will be flooded with thousands of salespeople from smaller tech companies hoping to sell their services to telecom operators or MVNOs. Having attended for years, I’ve seen many of these hopefuls fail to grasp just how few new products operators integrate into their networks.
Meet Strand Consult at Mobile World Congress
MWC 2025 will dazzle—but will it deliver for mobile operators? Meet us in Barcelona to cut through the noise.
